The long-standing tension between India and Pakistan is taking a new form. The recent deadly attack in Pahelgam, Kashmir, which killed 25 tourists, has further strained relations between the two countries. India alleges that Pakistan is behind the attack, although Pakistan has denied it. Since then, there have been various incidents including retaliatory attacks, severance of diplomatic relations, and missile launches. In this situation, the world has raised the question: Is this the beginning of the first India-Pakistan nuclear war in history?
How Did The Current Tension Start?
On April 22, India blamed Pakistan for the death of 25 people in a terrorist attack in Pahelgam, Kashmir. Pakistan denied its involvement in it. After that, India withdrew from the water-sharing agreement, severed diplomatic relations, and began border attacks.
On May 7, India launched a missile attack on Pakistani territory, which Pakistan claimed killed at least 31 innocent people. After that, the two countries accused each other of drone and missile attacks.
Comparison Of Nuclear Power Between India And Pakistan
India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 and declared itself a nuclear power in 1998. India currently has about 180 nuclear warheads. They have the ability to launch missiles from mobile launchers, submarines, and ships built with Russian assistance.
On the other hand, Pakistan has about 170 nuclear warheads. With Chinese technical assistance, they mainly rely on mobile ballistic missiles and short-range tactical nuclear weapons.
India’s nuclear policy is based on four main pillars:
No First Use (NFU): India will not use nuclear weapons first, only if they are attacked by a nuclear weapon.
Credible Minimum Deterrence: The principle is not the number of weapons, but credible deterrence.
Massive Retaliation: India will respond with full force if attacked first.
Biological/Chemical Exception: India can use nuclear weapons even if someone uses biological or chemical weapons.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Policy
Pakistan has never explicitly declared a nuclear policy. However, in 2001, Pakistani General Khalid Kidwai outlined four triggers that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons:
Loss of territory
Major military losses
Economic disarray
Political instability
Pakistan has been developing Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW) since 2011. Although these weapons are designed for limited use, their consequences could be dire.
“Nuclear war is unlikely, but not impossible,” said Dan Smith, head of the Stockholm Peace Research Institute. Some Indian leaders have also indicated that the NFU policy could be changed if necessary.
On the other hand, Pakistan has publicly stated that it has never adhered to the NFU policy. It has even made it clear that it will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons first if necessary.
How Terrible Could The Damage Be In The Event Of A War?
According to experts, a full-scale nuclear war would not only affect India and Pakistan, but also he entire world. Unimaginable destruction would occur, millions of lives would be lost, and the environment would be devastated by nuclear radiation.
Message For The Future
The current India-Pakistan situation is setting a dangerous precedent. Two nuclear powers are facing each other. The political, diplomatic, and international community must take action now.
Nuclear war is not a solution to any problem, but it will create bigger problems. If the two countries do not change their ways today, history may not forgive them.
Has a full-scale war between India and Pakistan begun?
A full-scale war has not yet begun, but the recent missile attacks and counterattacks on the Kashmir issue have raised the possibility of war.
How many nuclear bombs do India and Pakistan have?
India has an estimated 180 and Pakistan has about 170 nuclear warheads. Both countries have the capability to deploy these weapons.
What is India’s nuclear policy?
India follows the “No First Use” policy, meaning that India will never use nuclear weapons first. However, it will respond fiercely in the event of a nuclear attack.
Has Pakistan given a clear position on its nuclear policy?
No, Pakistan’s policy is based on “Strategic Ambiguity”. They never clearly state when they will use nuclear weapons.
How much damage can be caused in the event of a nuclear war?
A nuclear war is likely to result in millions of deaths, environmental destruction, and a large part of human civilization being endangered. Therefore, it is very important to avoid it.
